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Election Day in Sambodia

It’s election day in Sambodia. The city so nice they named it twice —  São Paulo, São Paulo — will select the next mayor and city council.

Humor columnist José “Macaco” Simão promises to select “popcorn” while entering his vote into the electronic voting machine.

The Folha de S.Paulo heads the news with the latest poll numbers — above — and joins with the Estadão in declaring a three-way tie in the race for the second-round runoff election.

A daily tracking poll commissioned by the PT, meanwhile …

… shows  Fernando Haddad with a five-point lead over  José Serra (PSDB). Haddad has  21%, with Serra in third place with 16%. Celso Russomanno (PRB), retains the lead with 29%. Chalita is the choice of  9%.

According to the IBOPE poll from October 2, Russomanno fell seven points, to 27%. Serra and Haddad had 19% and 18% respectively — a technical tie.

For some reason, no one is discussing the growth of Chalita of the PMDB in recent weeks. Which candidates are losing votes to Chalita and the ex-MTV veejay Soninha? PT and PDMB are joined in a coalition on a national level — a delicate balance.

So what explains the apparent reversal of fortune in favor of the PSDB candidate, who appears to have turned around a steady, solid negative trend despite substantial rejection — that is, «I would not vote for him under any circumstances»?

A video with 55,000 views charges that IURD, a Protestant theology of prosperity movement,  is the hidden influence behind Russomanno.

Would I care to bet on the outcome, you ask? Well, all right: I would suppose I would bet on a Serra-Haddad runoff round, but I would not put up the mortgage to cover it. I only suspect that Russomanno is some sort of as yet unexplained statistical freak.

Anonymous pamphlets distributed at polling stations urge voters not to vote for the party of the «monthly payola» scheme — the trial in this case is currently vying for audience with the soap Avenida Brasil … and losing.

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