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Pollsters and Dailies At Odds in Post-Election

datafolha-6

Source:  Blog da Cidadania.| Edu Guimarães

A follow-up to

  1. IBOPE Hope | Globo’s Phantom Numbers?
  2. Vox Populi | Corruption Numbers

Last Wednesday the Jornal Nacional reported partial results of the historical series of polls that IBOPE conducts together with the National Industrial Confederation (CNI).

The IBOPE-CNI survey reported that the popularity of Dilma Rousseff has increased. The JN, on the other hand, limited itself to a mere infographic that distorts this fact in the process.

As you can see, IBOPE conducted the survey and concluded that Dilma’s popularity has grown. But the numbers reflected on the CNI-IBOPE chart do not fit the numbers of the JN graphic.
What happened was very simple: The JN poached numbers from other IBOPE surveys like this on Dilma’s popularity, and presented them as part of the historical series IBOPE maintains for the CNI.

 

But why are the numbers so different from previous IBOPE polls conducted exclusively for the CNI? And well you may ask. There are several factors that might explain the discrepancy: the trust index, number of survey subjects, and so on.

Because every poll has a certain quality all its own, you cannot mix a historical series – each applying the same criteria – with random polls based on a different database.

 

In a word: the Jornal Nacional used a cheap trick. It forged a historical series for the CNI to deceive its viewers.

Ten days before the publication of the CNI-IBOPE poll, the Folha de São Paulo made space on the front page for a Datafolha survey which discovered excellent results for Dilma, but which, as happened at the Jornal Nacional, was distorted by the journalists that reported the story.

The topic was dealt with in the post: Folha manipulated an infographic and inverted data from the Datafolha survey. The front page headline shows that Folha lumped together subjects who believed Dilma had little responsibility for the Petrobras scandal with those who thought her responsibility was great. With this sleight of hand, the Folha was able to report that 68% of Brazilians blame Dilma for the scandal.

In analyzing the data, however, we discover indications that – contrary to the Folha headline («Dilma is blamed by everyone!”»), Dilma is highly thought of for combating corruption, and not just at Datafolha, but in a general way.

Source:  Blog da Cidadania.| Edu Guimarães

A follow-up to

  1. IBOPE Hope | Globo’s Phantom Numbers?
  2. Vox Populi | Corruption Numbers

ibope_0

Last Wednesday the Jornal Nacional reported partial results of the historical series of polls that IBOPE conducts together with the National Industrial Confederation (CNI).

The IBOPE-CNI survey reported that the popularity of Dilma Rousseff has increased. The JN, on the other hand, limited itself to a mere infographic that distorts this fact in the process.

As you can see, IBOPE conducted the survey and concluded that Dilma’s popularity has grown. But the numbers reflected on the CNI-IBOPE chart do not fit the numbers of the JN graphic.
What happened was very simple: The JN poached numbers from other IBOPE surveys like this on Dilma’s popularity, and presented them as part of the historical series IBOPE maintains for the CNI.

But why are the numbers so different from previous IBOPE polls conducted exclusively for the CNI? And well you may ask. There are several factors that might explain the discrepancy: the trust index, number of survey subjects, and so on.

Because every poll has a certain quality all its own, you cannot mix a historical series – each applying the same criteria – with random polls based on a different database.

In a word: the Jornal Nacional used a cheap trick. It forged a historical series for the CNI to deceive its viewers.

Ten days before the publication of the CNI-IBOPE poll, the Folha de São Paulo made space on the front page for a Datafolha survey which discovered excellent results for Dilma, but which, as happened at the Jornal Nacional, was distorted by the journalists that reported the story.

The topic was dealt with in the post: Folha manipulated an infographic and inverted data from the Datafolha survey. The front page headline shows that Folha lumped together subjects who believed Dilma had little responsibility for the Petrobras scandal with those who thought her responsibility was great. With this sleight of hand, the Folha was able to report that 68% of Brazilians blame Dilma for the scandal.

In analyzing the data, however, we discover indications that – contrary to the Folha headline («Dilma is blamed by everyone!”»), Dilma is highly thought of for combating corruption, and not just at Datafolha, but in a general way.

One of the most senior and respected of the Folha columnists, however, suggested that the paper manipulated the release of the Datafolha results Janio de Freitas insinuates that the institute and the newspaper that controls it posed the same ambiguous terminology in a question to interview subjects in a way designed to justify the front page headline.

The foregoing indicates that both Jornal Nacional and Folha are in conflict with the institutions that supply them with data on public opinion. These institutions say one thing and the TV news shows beg to differ. [They no longer speak in unison.]

The fabrication of a rosier scenario for the Marinho and Frias clans by employees who try to guess at the desires of their senior management stems from a surprising fact.

Several months ago, Dilma was taking heavy fire in the news media. When the campaign was over and Dilma reelected, the heavy artillery did not fall silent. It seemed as though the campaign has not ended.

With the full force of the media establishment brought to bear on demoralizing the president, both Globo and the Folha published surveys showing that the post-election bombardment against the president not only did not produce a negative effect on the target but also prevented positive stories from running without generating a negative for the paper.

What is surprising is the crude manipulation of facts in these cases Most surprising of all – or not surprising, [given its prior behavior] — is this sort of manipulation of survey data. The two national dailies have taken the game to new heights, but to date, without results.

In what follows, I relate a fact that might help the reader understand what is happening – because the mainstream media is incapable of destroying the federal president.

The Revolution of the Pizza Men

At the end of last week, I went to dinner with two communist friends in order to plan the transformation of Brazil into Cuba … Jokes aside, the waiter recognized me and told me that he reads the Blog and wanted to congratulate me.

The situation, as described above, are closely related to a poll conducted recently by SECOM, the official spokesperson of the presidency about the media consumption of Brazilians.

This survey confirmed what happened during my dinner out. Brazilians get their news from the internet, and increasingly inform themselves by reading blogs like this one, so that the Jornal Nacionals and the Folhas of the contemporary scene can no longer withhold a right of reply, or a public space for a rebuttal. This is why the establishment media has had to create falsifications of reality. It is simple as that.

The Guns of August

One of the most senior and respected of the Folha columnists, however, suggested that the paper manipulated the release of the Datafolha results Janio de Freitas insinuates that the institute and the newspaper that controls it posed the same ambiguous terminology in a question to interview subjects in a way designed to justify the front page headline.

The foregoing indicates that both Jornal Nacional and Folha are in conflict with the institutions that supply them with data on public opinion. These institutions say one thing and the TV news shows beg to differ. [They no longer speak in unison.]

The fabrication of a rosier scenario for the Marinho and Frias clans by employees who try to guess at the desires of their senior management stems from a surprising fact.

Several months ago, Dilma was taking heavy fire in the news media. When the campaign was over and Dilma reelected, the heavy artillery did not fall silent. It seemed as though the campaign has not ended.

With the full force of the media establishment brought to bear on demoralizing the president, both Globo and the Folha published surveys showing that the post-election bombardment against the president not only did not produce a negative effect on the target but also prevented any stories perceived as “manipulative” from running without generating a negative for the paper.

A recent TV campaign addresses this reputational deficit head on, and with a certain solemnity and minimalist  panache. A series of talking heads against a white background describe why they subscribe to the Folha.

  1. The Folha is against abortion. I disagree
  2. The Folha is in favor of higher tolls. I disagree …

And so on, mentioning topics of the day and underscoring the value of civil debate.  A very effective way to communicate the values of diversity and civic concern. But I digress.

What is surprising is the crude manipulation of facts in these cases. Most surprising of all – or not surprising, [given its prior behavior] — is this sort of manipulation of survey data. The two national dailies have taken the game to new heights, but to date, without results.

In what follows, I relate a fact that might help the reader understand what is happening – because the mainstream media is incapable of destroying the federal president.

At the end of last week, I went to dinner with two communist friends in order to plan the transformation of Brazil into Cuba … Jokes aside, the waiter recognized me and told me that he reads the Blog and wanted to congratulate me.

The situation, as described above, is also closely related to a poll conducted recently by SECOM, the official spokesperson of the presidency about the media consumption of Brazilians.

This survey confirmed what happened during my dinner out. Brazilians get their news from the internet, and increasingly inform themselves by reading blogs like this one, so that the Jornal Nacionals and the Folhas of the contemporary scene can no longer withhold [a right of reply, or a public space for a rebuttal.] This is why the establishment media has had to create falsifications of reality. It is simple as that.

The major dailies have installed a paywall that prevents access by means such as WordPress Press This. The kludge for this problem is to screenshot the passages to be excerpted, then fire up your Gimp.

Following, the Janio de Freitas column on which Edu has based some of his arguments. Let the network connection between them be reflected. Click to enlarge.

othernumbers