• May 2015
    M T W T F S S
    « Apr   Jun »
     123
    45678910
    11121314151617
    18192021222324
    25262728293031
  • Pages

  • Marginalia

  • Accumulations

Petrobras | Do The Urubus Change Their Tune?

PHP4F0E59EF8FDB7

Source: TIJOLAÇO

Three days ago, the daily Valor was echoing the expectations of the vulture capitalists with regard to Petrobras: “Petrobras should close out the first quarter of 2015 with net income of  R$ 2.72 bilhões, 49,5% less than in 1Q14. This prognosis is based on the average of five investment houses consulted by Valor, which also foresee, on average, a reduction of 4.7% gross earnings, to R$ 77.73 billion, and a 23% improvement in EBITDA, to R$ 17.64 bilhões, according to the same group surveyed. The group comprised Goldman Sachs, Bradesco, Deutsche Bank and other institutions.

And now we read in today’s Valor

Three days ago, the daily Valor was echoing the expectations of the vulture capitalists with regard to Petrobras: “Petrobras should close out the first quarter of 2015 with net income of  R$ 2.72 bilhões, 49,5% less than in 1Q14. This prognosis is based on the average of five investment houses consulted by Valor, which also foresee, on average, a reduction of 4.7% gross earnings, to R$ 77.73 billion, and a 23% improvement in EBITDA, to In 1Q15, EBITDA amounted to R$ 21.56 billion, a 50 increase year on year. R$ 17.64 bilhões, according to the same group surveyed. The group comprised Goldman Sachs, Bradesco, Deutsche Bank and other institutions.

And now we read in today’s Valor

“Petrobras closed 1Q15 with earnings of R$ 5.33 billion, down 1% compared with the R$ 5.393 billion reported in the same period a year ago.” What? What happened to the 49.5% shortfall? The ratio debt/EBITDA which experts believed would explode, fell [from?] 4.77 times to 3.86, despite currency devaluations.

Though the nominal value grew from R$ 282 to R$ 332 billion), this 18% difference was outpaced by the depreciation of the Brazilian real, and an enormous portion of debt, as is natural in major corporations and especially in the oil and gas sector, are priced in dollars.

The fact is that in New York, where no one reads the Brazilian papers during the after hours session of the local stock exchange, the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) of Petrobras is up 4.05% at the moment I write this, after having risen 2% during the normal session.

In addition to this overnight trading success, Petrobras maintains a comfortable lead in terms of the asset values of oil companies — although of course much of this has been hypotheticially pumped out of deep waters. Its assets grew 38.4%, compared with Shell’s 12.3%. All the others, it seems, are registering negative results.

Measuring year on year — more or less the period in which Operation Car Wash began to receive media heavy coverage — the loss was 32%, less than half of the 67% the shares fell during the worst session of the year.

The falling price of petroleum has a lot to do with this result, however. In the same period, profits at Shell fell 20.6%; Total, 25.2%; the Italian Eni, 27.5%; and at Exxon and Chevron, leaders in the category, results fell approximately 15%.

As I wrote here yesterday, the rats and vultures have not achieved the influence they sought in order to defeat Petrobras, not even if they are willing to damage the company in the process.

And Brasil Economic headlines today’s print run with

In 1Q15, EBITDA amounted to R$ 21.6 billion, a 50% increase year on year.